Sunday, April 6, 2008

Some Bright Spots in Train Wreck of a Market






Although the U.S. equities markets closed down again for the week, including losses exceeding 2% to close the week on Friday, there are some bright spots in diverse places.




First, commodities are red hot and getting hotter with the likelihood of more rate cuts coming, which bodes well for commodities as the dollar becomes weaker compared to other currencies with Central Banks that aren't so eager to cut their rates. For instance, the European Central Bank's mandate is solely to control inflation (they take inflation a little more seriously than we do; the rise of the Nazi party was precipitated by inflation), whereas the U.S. Fed is both tasked with controlling inflation AND facilitating economic growth. This, apparently, grants the Fed an excuse to continue printing more money and weakening our currency ad nausea. Check out this Fed Funds Futures chart virtually pricing in a Fed rate cut of another 50 basis points at the next meeting:








Therefore, commodities have been doing quite well. Gold and Platinum continue to break all-time highs. The gold ETF GLD is up ~3% for the week and StillWater mining, a top supplier of platinum was up ~8% on the week. I own both stocks.




In Biotech news, Lifecell (LIFC) was up double digits for the week following phenomenal earnings. I first posted about LIFC 40% ago and unfortunately, I didn't put my money where my mouth is. I still recommend it as a buy given new products and a complete lack of any viable competition.




Finally, a large distributor of beverages, spirits and wine in a hot growth region - Central and Eastern Europe, CEDC, was up 5% for the week. It had spiked over 10% midweek on the announcement of a key deal. I had posted about this one in mid-07 as well and hold no position.






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